Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 84001.696890 88652.608417 93300.781082 98291.483220 103494.931480 108756.883443 114476.818479
2025-01-05 76508.652648 83644.281475 90973.989229 99055.432573 107705.173398 116675.034369 126669.443929
2025-01-12 70681.233134 79475.306184 88706.761727 99098.493253 110448.813008 122447.941859 136069.985924
2025-01-19 66013.679785 76013.135840 86703.490611 98947.683936 112547.374861 127152.978490 143987.929465
2025-01-26 63496.943904 74617.197427 86692.197368 100726.103855 116534.209628 133735.885392 153813.839734
2025-02-02 61387.785128 73470.639511 86775.108623 102440.622798 120307.244724 139974.474527 163183.658367
2025-02-09 59003.161436 71837.895101 86155.477018 103218.881635 122904.184647 144803.922185 170907.946865
2025-02-16 56346.555047 69738.385715 84864.105208 103098.412082 124363.163917 148256.046184 177003.555079
2025-02-23 54327.183016 68272.371200 84205.352944 103616.732075 126479.602892 152401.810928 183857.124280
2025-03-02 52244.249440 66629.091619 83247.499953 103699.820251 128017.369067 155826.920702 189844.586162
2025-03-09 50986.858018 65909.365538 83324.362284 104955.172835 130894.856797 160790.272078 197624.253594
2025-03-16 48920.014282 64121.333862 82046.790256 104521.650831 131708.727949 163288.424741 202481.683555
2025-03-23 47968.195264 63690.509020 82409.648025 106083.961286 134951.681139 168725.255844 210920.566404
2025-03-30 46756.670388 62891.785577 82288.512996 107032.764586 137445.498252 173280.433350 218345.312211
2025-04-06 45189.804104 61587.670878 81493.230045 107108.404246 138842.884194 176501.475372 224169.399416
2025-04-13 43608.600481 60207.587845 80551.326922 106954.349844 139919.620533 179309.537108 229484.873561
2025-04-20 43091.314044 60164.740960 81263.956348 108848.990708 143519.908479 185192.844876 238562.814674
2025-04-27 42578.463516 60101.442605 81931.031513 110674.123822 147033.027296 190983.236558 247560.927323
2025-05-04 41647.878228 59457.349759 81829.168486 111502.398594 149286.043334 195224.385833 254674.078474
2025-05-11 40344.584442 58279.430622 81004.133246 111374.217761 150308.712945 197929.520895 259890.447832
2025-05-18 39399.075637 57546.441413 80727.071801 111925.771586 152175.877911 201678.765095 266411.102804
2025-05-25 38304.251092 56578.515288 80113.037375 112014.184349 153432.581579 204655.440483 271972.319711
2025-06-01 37774.546138 56357.709285 80465.128850 113349.870553 156285.802704 209645.810086 280080.448281